A strong argument can be made that "business as usual" in terms of greenhouse emissions is a dangerous course to follow. That argument is based on the reality of three issues: population growth, energy consumption related to standard of living, and energy production.
It now takes only 11 years to add a billion people to the Earth’s population, although there are indications that the growth rate is slowing. But because of the age distribution of many countries, population momentum will carry Earth’s human population with certainty into the 10-12 billion range. In rapid growth countries such as Kenya about 20% of the population is between ages 0 to 5. Nearly half the population is in the age range 0-15. It is the childbearing potential of this section of the population that propels population momentum and results in growth projections for the globe. In slow growth countries such as the USA, only 7% of the population are in the age bracket 0-5, and there are as many Americans in the age bracket 40-45 as in the 0-5 year age group. But rapid growth countries still outnumber slow growth countries and so global population will still climb even as birth rates decline.
China and India, the two most populous nations on Earth together comprise more than one third of the world’s population. As high-population countries such as Nigeria, India, Pakistan, China, and Indonesia increase their standard of living, the energy consumption path they choose will have major implications on global energy demands.
The three countries with the highest per capita energy consumption are Canada, USA, and Kuwait. When taken together, the inevitable growth of human population combined with individuals and societies having a legitimate desire to raise standard of living by consuming more energy and the present reliance on fossil fuels for energy, the prognosis for more atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions and likely accelerated global warming is bleak.
Global energy demand is growing at about 1.3 percent per year, roughly keeping pace with population growth. About ninety percent of human energy demand is satisfied by burning fossil fuels, releasing increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and contributing to the enhanced greenhouse effect. State-of-the-art climate models suggest that these elevated carbon dioxide levels will lead to an increase in global temperature of about 2 degreesC during the next century, a rate of climate change not known in recent geologic history. There are other alternatives. Some require global commitment, others require public leadership, and yet others rely on individual actions. Canada and the USA should reduce their excessive energy consumption. Creative talents of engineers and scientists need to be challenged into improved energy efficiency and fuel switching to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels.
Public leadership is important. To achieve the economic potential of improved energy efficiency and fuel switching, governments should provide a combination of targets and timetables, efficiency regulation and an array of market-based incentives that encourage businesses to make the necessary investments to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Such measures could include: mandating high energy-efficiency standards, retrofitting buildings to conserve energy, reducing subsidies that distort energy prices, developing market-based measures such as emissions permits, encouraging fuel switching to less carbon intensive fuels, developing renewable energy sources, working with automakers to encourage use of more energy efficient vehicles, and assisting municipalities with planning that minimizes vehicle use. All these measures will have the greatest effect if implemented in a timely manner. Some studies indicate that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions produce economic benefits greater than their costs. Policies encouraging energy efficient processes and renewable energy technologies are a bridge to the knowledge-based economies of the 21st century.
Individuals can also make a difference. Use a fuel-efficient car and drive less, live closer to work, walk or ride a bicycle. Buy local and seasonal goods to reduce consumption of energy for transportation. Make sure your house is well sealed and insulated to reduce heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. Use compact fluorescent light bulbs and energy-efficient appliances. Plant trees and shrubs whenever possible. Compost and recycle. Through the democratic process, encourage your elected officials to deliver policies that properly take the environment into account. After all, if people can cause global warming, people can stop it too.
The second global issue is that of poverty and the increasing disparity in wealth between the developed and the developing world. In 1990 the ratio of income between the richest 20% of the world’s population and the poorest 20% was 30 to 1. A third environmental issue is the consumption of resources including agricultural land and groundwater at unsustainable rates. We are affecting their use by future generations. The fourth issue is that of global security. Recent wars have been fought over oil and future wars over water are a distinct possibility. Climate change resulting in loss of land or resources would put additional tension into the global political arena.
The solution to these problems and issues are complex. The scales are global and the time scales are decades to centuries. The challenge, and overall goal, is appropriate environmental stewardship of the planet. Global warming may just be the alarm that brings us, albeit with much debate, to action.
