The whole world is waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the peace initiatives in Sri Lanka. Thanks to the efforts of the Norwegian government, the Tigers who have been engaged in an armed struggle, for nearly twenty years, demanding a separate Eelam, have announced stoppage of hostilities and agreed for peace talks. The Sri Lankan government headed by Ranil has also agreed for the talks. Ranil's visit to Jaffna and Prabakaran's press conference, after 12 years, raise hopes of a peace settlement.

LTTE requested permission from the Government of India for Anton Balasingham, their political advisor, to stay in India for the peace talks. With the GOI refusing permission, the venue of the peace talks is likely to be in Thailand. Though the official line is that they sought permission from GOI to hold the talks in India, in view of Balasingham's health, the real reason is the Tigers are looking for moral support from India. Vajpayee has announced that India may consider permission for Balasingham on humanitarian grounds, for medical treatment.

In the beginning there was support for the Tigers, in India, particularly in Tamil Nadu. They had political and public sympathy. However the Tigers' killing of Sabarathnam, leader of TELO, in 1986, Amirthalingam, TULF leader in 1989, after inviting him for talks, the EPRLF leader Padmanabha and 14 others in broad daylight in 1990 in Chennai and then the killing of Rajiv Gandhi, in 1991, ensured they lost whatever support or sympathy they had.

Prabkaran is one of the prime accused in the Rajiv case. There is no way the Tigers or their supporters can justify Rajiv's murder. Trying to get away with a one liner, "it was a tragedy" will not cut any ice with the Indian people. India has categorically announced it will not have anything to do with the talks. However, in the current situation, the Tigers need the moral support of the Indian government. The most important point is what is the Tigers' answer to charges against them. How will the Sri Lankan government. answer criticisms of the political and military violence let loose on Tamils? How will the GOI react to criticisms of IPKF atrocities? One can keep asking countless questions like these!

The bitter truth is, whatever may be the answers to the various questions, the Sri Lankan economy is in shambles, on account of the prolonged war; there have been human rights violations on both sides. People are having a tough time. The international community which is aware of this, is pushing both sides for peace talks. Both the sides realise this. In the back ground are a number of reasons, for agreeing to the peace talks. In the 70's, groups that took to arms, for various reasons were looked at as rebels fighting for a cause/their rights. Today, however, post Sept.11, any group carrying arms is branded as terrorists and the International community submits to this view strongly. The Tigers know this only too well. They lost no time in condemning the attack on the twin towers.

The Tigers realise that they cannot hope for any support, from anywhere, if they continue fighting armed battles. England and other European countries are indirectly putting curbs on the fund raising efforts of the LTTE. These are very important reasons for agreeing to the peace talks, say experts. It is the prevailing compulsions that have forced the LTTE to agree for talks. Another reason is that the second generation of Tigers are not for war, but for peace. Internationally, everyone wants democracy to be given its due. Prabakaran showed up in 'civilian' dress to give the impression that he is a representative of democracy.

Refugees in countries like Norway get a number of benefits. So the number of refugees is increasing every year. This entails huge costs for the respective governments and also builds up resentment among the locals. In view of these problems, the European countries are making all efforts to broker peace and the Norwegian government has taken the initiative. From a predominantly agricultural economy, with emphasis on exports, the Lankan economy is moving towards an industrial economy and industrial growth is contributing a fair share to the government kitty.

In the 70's unemployment was rampant in Sri Lanka, but in the period 1991-94, the targeted economic growth was achieved, but the unending war from 1995, has pulled the Lankan economy down. The government's hopes on tourism, as a revenue earner, were dashed, following the Colombo Airport attack. Tourism is a major pull, in Sri Lanka. With tourist inflows decreasing and foreign investments drying up, the government had no choice but to invite the Tigers for peace talks and hope the talks succeed.

The Indian demand for extraditing Prabakaran, may well be looked at by the other countries as scuttling the talks. It is naive to believe that India does not know that there is a powerful trade & industry lobby behind the efforts for the talks. Even Chandrika who was opposed to the talks, from the beginning, has given her consent after the Norway group met her. The Indian stand is still not clear. Statements and announcements about Prabakaran are flying thick and fast, but the social and economic reasons, in the background, are conveniently forgotten.

It is for our leaders to decide if we should go by the past events or align with the rest of the world, which is making efforts to get the peace talks underway. The Lankan Tamils and the Sinhalese are praying that the peace talks in Thailand will succeed.