The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala by June 4. Earlier, IMD had predicted it would arrive by May 26, but this did not happen. The typical date for the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala is June 1.
Last year, the monsoon arrived on May 24, which was its earliest arrival since 2009. While the exact date of arrival does not determine how much rain there will be, this year IMD has warned that rainfall is likely to be below normal.
IMD stated that weather conditions are favorable for the monsoon to advance further into parts of the Arabian Sea, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu over the next few days.
IMD’s historical records show that its forecasts for the monsoon’s arrival date in Kerala have been accurate 95% of the time since 2005, except in 2015. This year, IMD has lowered its rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-term average, down from its earlier prediction of 92%.
If this season’s rainfall is less than 90% of the long-term average, it will be classified as “deficient.” One reason for the below-normal rainfall could be the development of El Nino conditions, which often lead to reduced monsoon rainfall in India. IMD noted that neutral weather patterns are gradually shifting toward weak El Nino conditions, with stronger conditions expected by September.