Most parts of Tamil Nadu are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, some northern districts of the state could receive normal or even above-normal rainfall during the month.
The weather forecast has raised concerns about water availability, farming and rising temperatures across the state. The IMD has also predicted that India’s overall rainfall in September could be around 91% of the long-term average.
Tamil Nadu Already Facing a Rainfall Deficit
Tamil Nadu has already received less rainfall than usual this year.
Since June 1, the state has recorded around 16.3 cm of rainfall, which is about 22% below the normal level for this period.
Several districts have experienced a much larger shortage. Ariyalur, Nagapattinam and Thoothukudi are among the areas that have recorded significant rainfall deficits.
A continued lack of rain could create problems for farmers, particularly those depending on rainfall for their crops. It could also put additional pressure on water supplies in some areas.
Impact on Agriculture and Water Resources
Below-normal rainfall can affect both agriculture and drinking-water resources.
Farmers may face difficulties if there is not enough water for crops. Lower rainfall can also reduce the amount of water entering lakes, reservoirs and groundwater systems.
If the dry conditions continue for a longer period, some areas could face increased pressure on existing water resources.
The situation could be more challenging if high temperatures continue at the same time.
El Nino Behind the Dry Conditions
The IMD has linked the current dry weather conditions to strong El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Nino can influence weather patterns around the world, including rainfall patterns in India. The current El Nino conditions are expected to continue and could become stronger in the coming months.
However, there is also some hope that another climate pattern could reduce its impact.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Could Help
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to develop during September.
A positive IOD can sometimes support rainfall over parts of India and may reduce some of the negative effects associated with El Nino.
However, the final impact will depend on how these weather systems develop and interact during the coming weeks.
Hot Weather Expected in September
Rainfall is not the only concern for Tamil Nadu.
Most parts of the state are expected to experience above-normal temperatures during September. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures could remain higher than usual, according to regional weather data.
Higher nighttime temperatures can be especially uncomfortable because they give people less relief from the heat after sunset.
The combination of low rainfall and high temperatures could increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for outdoor workers, farmers and vulnerable people.
Northern Districts May Get Better Rain
Although most parts of Tamil Nadu are expected to remain relatively dry, some northern districts could see better rainfall.
These areas may receive normal or above-normal rainfall during September. However, rainfall can vary significantly between districts, so local weather conditions will need to be monitored closely.
What to Expect
The September forecast highlights the possibility of another challenging month for Tamil Nadu.
With rainfall already below normal, continued dry weather could affect farming and water resources. At the same time, higher temperatures could increase heat-related risks.
The development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could provide some relief, but its effect remains uncertain.
For now, people across Tamil Nadu will be watching the weather closely, especially in areas already facing a major rainfall shortage. Farmers and authorities may need to plan carefully for water use if the expected dry conditions continue.