The ongoing conflict in West Asia is not only affecting the supply of crude oil and natural gas but is also disturbing the supply chains of several important goods. As the war involving United States, Israel and Iran entered its tenth day, the impact is being felt in many countries, including India.
Experts say the conflict has begun to affect the supply of several important products such as fertilisers, aluminium, and plastic-based packaging materials. The Middle East region is a major supplier of many of these goods to India. Because of disruptions in production and transport caused by the conflict, prices of these items have started rising and supplies have become uncertain.
One of the biggest concerns for India is the availability and price of fertilisers, especially urea. This is important because the agricultural sowing season is about to begin in many parts of the country. Farmers depend on fertilisers during this time to ensure good crop production.
India imports about 30% of its total fertiliser requirement from other countries. According to a report by Crisil Ratings, nearly 40% of these imports come from the Middle East. Because of the current conflict in the region, there are fears that supplies may become limited or more expensive.
Data from the Fertiliser Association of India shows that India’s fertiliser imports are expected to rise significantly in the financial year 2025–26. Imports may increase by about 41% to reach 22.3 million tonnes, mainly due to higher demand following good monsoon rains that encourage more farming activity.
To support farmers and keep fertiliser prices affordable, the Indian government provides subsidies. The central government has allocated ₹1.71 lakh crore as fertiliser subsidy for the financial year 2026–27. This is slightly lower than the ₹1.86 lakh crore allocated in the current financial year. Initially, the subsidy for the current year had been estimated at ₹1.67 lakh crore, but it was later increased.
Experts warn that if the conflict in West Asia continues for a long time, it could further disrupt supplies and increase costs for important agricultural inputs. This may create challenges for farmers and could also affect food production and prices in India.
Officials and industry leaders are closely monitoring the situation and exploring alternative supply sources to ensure that farmers get the fertilisers they need during the crucial sowing season.