September Rainfall Expected Below Normal

India will likely see below-normal rainfall in September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). On August 31, 2026, the IMD predicted that the country’s rainfall would be at least 9% less than the long-term average of 167.9 mm. This follows the hottest August since 1901, with temperatures around 28.01°C, which is about 0.67°C above normal.

Most parts of India are expected to remain drier than usual. However, some regions like northwest, northeast, east, and isolated areas in southeast peninsular India may receive normal or even more rain. September typically contributes about one-fifth of the June-September monsoon rainfall, less than July’s 32% and August’s 29%.

As of August 31, India’s total monsoon rainfall was about 14% below average, with central India having surplus but other regions experiencing deficits. The shortfall was most noticeable in the east and northeast, as well as parts of the southern peninsula.

IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that the current El Niño conditions are causing drier and hotter weather. Despite this, August saw heavy rainfall in some areas due to low-pressure systems over the Indo-Gangetic Plains.

For September, IMD predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of India. The month is expected to be warm and relatively dry as the monsoon season winds down.

The IMD’s models suggest that El Niño conditions will strengthen further during the remainder of the southwest monsoon season. This aligns with their earlier forecast for August, which mostly matched observed rainfall patterns except in regions like the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southeast peninsular India, where rainfall was higher than predicted.